If you have a mortgage coming up for renewal, or you're shopping for one right now, the latest report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has some numbers worth paying attention to.

Variable Rates Are Leading Again

For the first time since 2022, variable mortgage rates dropped below fixed rates in late 2025. The effect was immediate. By February 2026, according to CMHC's Residential Mortgage Industry Report, variable-rate mortgages made up 42% of new mortgages extended by chartered banks. That made them the single most popular product on the market. Meanwhile, only 11% of borrowers chose a traditional 5-year fixed term.

That's a significant shift from where things stood a few years ago. When rates were rising and unpredictable, locking in felt like the safer call. Now the math has changed, and so has borrower behaviour.

The Renewal Wave Is Easing

The so-called mortgage renewal cliff, something a lot of homeowners have been anxious about, appears to be past its worst point. CMHC expects 13% fewer renewals in 2026 compared to 2025, meaning many of the borrowers who took on mortgages during the ultra-low-rate years of the pandemic have already worked through their renewals.

Rates have also come down meaningfully. The average rate at chartered banks fell from around 4.8% in January 2025 to roughly 4.2% by January 2026. That's not a return to pandemic-era rates, but it does reduce the payment shock for people renewing now compared to those who renewed a year ago.

Arrears Are Still Low, But Uneven

Nationally, mortgage delinquencies remain low by historical standards. The 90+ day arrears rate sat at 0.24% in the fourth quarter of 2025. That sounds small, and in context it is. But the CMHC report is clear that the stress is not evenly distributed. Toronto saw arrears climb 45% year-over-year. Ontario overall was up 35%. CMHC's deputy chief economist, Aled ab Iorwerth, put it plainly: the system is stable overall, but there are pockets of real pressure, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver.

For homeowners in those markets, that context matters when thinking about how to structure a renewal.

Policy Changes Are Opening Doors for First-Time Buyers

The federal government made several changes to mortgage insurance rules in late 2024, and the data is starting to show the impact. In the fourth quarter of 2025, 54% of mortgages extended to first-time buyers by chartered banks were insured, up from the mid-40% range before the changes took effect.

The key updates: eligible buyers can now access 30-year insured mortgages instead of the previous 25-year maximum. That was first available for purchases of newly built homes, then expanded to all first-time buyers and anyone buying a new build. The government also raised the cap on insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million, which matters significantly in markets like Mississauga where that threshold was regularly a barrier.

For first-time buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, these changes lower the monthly payment on an insured mortgage and bring more properties within range.

Switching Lenders Got Easier Too

One more change worth noting: OSFI removed the stress test requirement for uninsured borrowers switching lenders at renewal in late 2024. That gave borrowers more freedom to shop around without having to re-qualify from scratch. According to CMHC, uninsured mortgage switches increased 34% in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

If your renewal is coming up, this is a meaningful shift. You now have more leverage to compare what your current lender is offering against what else is available. Shopping around at renewal used to mean going through the full stress test again. Now it doesn't, and that changes the conversation entirely.

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**The takeaway:** the mortgage landscape has shifted in ways that favour borrowers more than it has in a few years. Variable rates are competitive again, renewal pressure is easing, and new rules have made insured mortgages more accessible. If you're renewing or entering the market for the first time, it's worth taking a careful look at your options rather than defaulting to whatever your current lender puts in front of you.